Quick-Contest Combat Stat AnalysisFrom: Ed King elk@atlas.cb.att.comDIE PERCENTAGES
1d 2d 3d
Roll Chance Cum. Chance Cum. Chance Cum.
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1: 17% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2: 17% 33% 2% 2% 0% 0%
3: 17% 50% 5% 8% 0% 0%
4: 17% 67% 8% 16% 1% 1%
5: 17% 83% 11% 27% 2% 4%
6: 17% 100% 13% 41% 4% 9%
7: 16% 58% 6% 16%
8: 13% 72% 9% 25%
9: 11% 83% 11% 37%
10: 8% 91% 12% 50%
11: 5% 97% 12% 62%
12: 2% 100% 11% 74%
13: 9% 83%
14: 6% 90%
15: 4% 95%
16: 2% 98%
17: 1% 99%
18: 0% 100%
ARMOR PIERCING ODDS(That is, if you do X amount of damage, what are your odds of getting at least 1 point of damage through the DR? For higher damages, mentally increment the DR by one. e.g. doing 2 points against DR 0 has the same chance as doing 1 point against DR 1.)
DR
Damage| 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
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1d-3 | 50 33 17
1d-2 | 67 50 33 17
1d-1 | 83 67 50 33 17
1d |100 83 67 50 33 17
1d+1 |100 100 83 67 50 33 17
1d+2 |100 100 100 83 67 50 33 17
1d+3 |100 100 100 100 83 67 50 33 17
1d+4 |100 100 100 100 100 83 67 50 33
1d+5 |100 100 100 100 100 100 83 67 50
1d+6 |100 100 100 100 100 100 100 83 67
2d-3 | 91 83 72 58 41 27 16 8 2
2d-2 | 97 91 83 72 58 41 27 16 8
2d-1 |100 97 91 83 72 58 41 27 16
2d |100 100 97 91 83 72 58 41 27
2d+1 |100 100 100 97 91 83 72 58 41
2d+2 |100 100 100 100 97 91 83 72 58
2d+3 |100 100 100 100 100 97 91 83 72
2d+4 |100 100 100 100 100 100 97 91 83
2d+5 |100 100 100 100 100 100 100 97 91
2d+6 |100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 97
3d-3 |100 99 98 95 90 83 74 62 50
3d-2 |100 100 99 98 95 90 83 74 62
3d-1 |100 100 100 99 98 95 90 83 74
3d |100 100 100 100 99 98 95 90 83
3d+1 |100 100 100 100 100 99 98 95 90
3d+2 |100 100 100 100 100 100 99 98 95
3d+3 |100 100 100 100 100 100 100 99 98
3d+4 |100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 99
3d+5 |100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Attack/Defense Odds(Odds of scoring a hit using the normal attack/defend rules.) A| Effective Attack Skill D| 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 +--------------------------------------------------------------- 3| 0 0 2 7 14 23 35 47 60 71 81 88 90 91 92 93 4| 0 0 2 7 14 23 35 47 59 70 80 87 89 90 91 92 5| 0 0 2 7 13 22 34 45 57 68 78 84 86 87 88 89 6| 0 0 2 6 13 21 32 43 55 65 74 80 82 83 84 85 7| 0 0 2 6 12 20 29 40 50 60 68 74 76 77 78 78 8| 0 0 2 5 10 17 26 35 44 53 60 65 67 68 69 69 9| 0 0 1 4 8 15 22 30 37 45 51 55 56 57 58 58 10| 0 0 1 3 7 12 17 24 30 36 40 44 45 46 46 46 11| 0 0 1 2 5 9 13 18 22 27 30 33 34 34 35 35 12| 0 0 0 1 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 23 23 24 24 24 13| 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 7 9 11 13 14 14 15 15 15 14| 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 15| 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 16| 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 17| 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18| 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Quick Contest Odds(That is, given your skill & your opponent, what are the odds of you winning a quick contest. This chart may seem a little skewed, but that is because it takes into account the possibility of a crit by either opponent.) Your skill
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
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3|0.5 1.8 4.6 9.2 16.0 25.6 37.0 49.3 61.5 72.9 82.4 89.2 93.7 96.5 97.9 98.3
4|0.5 1.8 4.6 9.2 16.0 25.6 37.0 49.3 61.5 72.9 82.4 89.2 93.8 96.6 97.9 98.3
5|0.5 1.8 4.5 9.0 15.8 25.3 36.6 48.9 61.2 72.6 82.2 89.1 93.7 96.5 97.9 98.3
6|0.5 1.8 4.4 8.7 15.3 24.6 35.8 48.0 60.2 71.7 81.4 88.5 93.3 96.3 97.8 98.3
7|0.5 1.8 4.2 8.2 14.5 23.4 34.3 46.2 58.4 69.9 79.8 87.2 92.4 95.7 97.5 98.2
8|0.5 1.8 3.9 7.6 13.4 21.7 32.0 43.6 55.5 67.0 77.1 85.0 90.7 94.5 96.7 97.8
9|0.5 1.8 3.6 6.8 11.9 19.5 28.9 39.8 51.4 62.7 73.1 81.5 87.9 92.5 95.4 97.0
10|0.5 1.8 3.2 5.9 10.3 16.8 25.3 35.2 46.1 57.2 67.6 76.5 83.8 89.4 93.2 95.6
11|0.5 1.8 2.9 5.0 8.5 13.9 21.1 29.9 39.9 50.4 60.8 70.2 78.3 85.0 89.9 93.4
12|0.5 1.8 2.6 4.1 6.8 11.0 16.9 24.4 33.2 42.9 52.9 62.6 71.5 79.1 85.3 90.0
13|0.5 1.8 2.3 3.3 5.2 8.3 12.9 18.9 26.4 35.1 44.5 54.1 63.4 71.9 79.4 85.4
14|0.5 1.8 2.1 2.7 4.0 6.1 9.4 14.1 20.1 27.5 36.0 45.1 54.5 63.7 72.1 79.4
15|0.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 3.0 4.4 6.7 10.0 14.6 20.6 27.9 36.3 45.4 54.9 63.8 72.1
16|0.5 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.4 3.2 4.6 6.9 10.2 14.8 20.8 28.1 36.6 45.9 54.9 63.8
17|0.5 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.5 3.3 4.7 6.9 10.3 14.9 20.8 28.5 37.4 45.9 54.9
18|0.5 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.5 3.3 4.7 6.9 10.3 14.9 21.6 29.7 37.4 45.9
APPLICATIONOK, what are your odds of hurting someone in plate mail?
Example: George has sword skill of 16 (15 in plate), PD 4, DR6. After modifiers, his total parry is 16. He does 2d+1 damage on a swing. Evaine has rapier skill of 17; PD5, DR1. After modifiers, her parry is 16. She does 1d damage with it. George's chance's of hitting Evaine AND DOING DAMAGE (under quick contest rules) are 36.6*100/100 == 36.6%. Under the normal rules, his odds of doing damage are: 1*100/100 == 1%. Evaine's chances of hitting George AND DOING DAMAGE are 0 for a torso shot. If she takes an eyeslit shot, she can get it to 2.4%. Those are the quick contest rules. Under the standard rule set, her odds are still 0 for a torso shot. (Hitting doesn't matter if you can't penetrate the armor!) Her odds for an eyeslit shot are also 0 (OK, less than 1%).
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